UK retail sales growth falters
January growth a ‘blip’ says CBI
March 4 2003
The revival in UK retail sales growth generated by the post-Christmas sales was not sustained into February, figures from the Confederation of British Industry show.
Retail sales barely grew at all in the year to February, according the CBI’s latest distributive trades survey
The three month rolling average, which shows the underlying trend, saw the lowest retail sales growth since March 1999. Retailers are less optimistic about the overall business situation for the next six months than at any time since November 2000.
In February, 38 per cent of firms said sales were up on the same month last year while 36 per cent said they were down. Post Christmas sales triggered slightly higher growth of plus seven per cent in January but the stagnation in sales growth seen in December returned. At best, retailers expect growth in March to be well below the levels seen last year.
Only 19 per cent said sales were good for the time of year, while 34 per cent said they were poor.
The strongest year-on-year sales growth was seen in durable household goods such as fridges and DVD players. These were followed by stores selling groceries, books and stationery. Recording the biggest year-on-year declines were specialist food retailers and off licences.
Average prices rose only very moderately in the year to February, and retailers reported significant cutbacks in planned investment, for the third successive quarter. Despite low the sales growth, retailers continued to take on staff over the year to February.
Alastair Eperon, chairman of the CBI’s Distributive Trades Panel and a director of Boots, said: “This survey suggests that the modest revival in January was a blip. The strong sales growth of 2002 has disappeared and the underlying trend is now for little, if any, year-on-year growth.
“A poor February may be partly due to wintery weather early in the month which may have put people off shopping. But there is evidence that worries about the impact of a possible war and the sustainability of house prices are undermining consumer confidence.”
