Retailers braced for downbeat Christmas
CBI survey shows confidence lower
With a range of indicators showing a slow start to Christmas trading in the UK, the CBI reports that retailers are now expect December sales to be below average for the time of year.
Despite growth picking up slightly in November, according to the CBI’s quarterly Distributive Trades survey, retailers are bracing themselves for a disappointing Christmas.
Twenty-five per cent of firms said sales in November were poor for the time of year while 21 per cent they were good. This gives a balance of minus four per cent, no improvement on last month. For December the balance worsens to minus nine per cent.
In November, 43 per cent of stores said sales were up compared to 24 per cent saying they were down. The balance of plus 19 per cent was an improvement on plus 11 in October but well below the balances seen earlier in the year.
The results suggest retailers are keeping volumes up by cutting prices or discounting. The proportion of volumes accounted for by imports has risen over the past year.
Confectioners and newsagents reporting the strongest growth compared with November last year. Grocers, booksellers and stationers and stores selling hardware, china and DIY also reported healthy growth. Stores selling durable household goods continued to report negative growth but indicate an improvement on the previous two months.
Ian McCafferty, CBI chief economic adviser, said: “With stores open longer it’s not unusual to experience a slow build up to Christmas. However, this year retailers appear to be bracing themselves for a disappointing Christmas as consumers show a reluctance to spend in the face of rising interest rates and concerns about the economy. A bumper Christmas would be a big surprise.”
