Record Shopping Week helps deliver a better-than-expected December
Figures from SPSL’s Retail Traffic Index released today confirm that December 2005 was a busier shopping month than many retailers could have hoped for. Shopper numbers were down just 0.1% on December 2004 and were up by 31.2% against November 2005
For the final two weeks of the year (w/c 18/12/05 and w/c 25/12/05) retail traffic was 3.6% higher overall than the corresponding weeks of 2004. The final week before Christmas Day (w/c 18th December), with a full seven days of trading recorded the highest Retail Traffic Index value since records began eight years ago.
Commenting on the latest figures Dr Tim Denison, Director of Knowledge Management at SPSL states; “After a sluggish first fortnight in the month, shoppers came out in full festive force thereafter. The final week before Christmas Day, with its extra day’s trading over last year, was the week that made all the difference. Retail footfall that week (w/c 18/12) was up 15.7% on the same week last year and constitutes the busiest shopping week since our tracking began in 1998. Retailers up and down the country will be breathing a sigh of contentment as long as they have been able to convert their share of shoppers into sales.
“These flat figures are stronger than we had been expecting. From as far back as October, when there were fears of a pending ‘Armageddon Christmas’, SPSL’s forecast was bullish. As it transpires even our forecast of a 2.2% year-on-year fall across the UK has proven to be too pessimistic, although our prediction that Northern England would see the best year-on-year results has been upheld (+2.5%). There have been three main factors which we consider have contributed to produce a better-than-expected month. Firstly, the cold snap of weather helped stimulate interest in winter wear amongst the high street fashion stores. Secondly, retailers’ high profile campaigns comprising early one-day events followed up by selective product discounting were particularly effective at drawing in traffic this year. Thirdly, consumers have temporarily forgotten about their confidence crisis and adopted a ‘bargains to be had’ approach to Christmas this year.
“But with Christmas already disappearing in the rear-view mirror, interest is now focused on the Sales and the general outlook for 2006.
The Sales campaign began well if not spectacularly. Though still in a minority, more retailers than ever before decided to open their doors on Boxing Day. They were rewarded with a 17.3% uplift in shopper numbers over last year. But it’s the 27th and 28th that have become the key Sales launch days in recent years. This year the figures stood up well to 2004’s record numbers; down 3.1% and 2.9% respectively. Since then though, retail footfall levels have dropped off markedly and the first week of Sales yielded 7.8% fewer shoppers than during the same week in 2004.
“The immediate imponderable is whether the drop-off in shopper numbers after the first three days of Sales is a short term blip or the start of a more significant trend. Is it just a blip brought about by inclement weather delaying shopping trips or is it a sign that consumers are either hitting their shopping saturation levels, believing that the best bargains have gone. Time will tell.
“What Christmas 2005 has established already is that the leading retailers can cope with the more unsettled consumer environment in the short term. They will, however, remain circumspect of what 2006 will bring, particularly on the back of the first few Sale days. The greatest retail challenges this year are likely to be faced by those selling high ticket household items, where shoppers will be most vigilant in seeking out the best bargains or else in delaying their purchases and making do.”
