Pre-Christmas sales growth at ten-year low
Sales flat compared to 2001
January 2 2003
Pre-Christmas retail sales were no higher than a year earlier, according to the latest CBI figures.
With sales growth flat for the first time in ten years, the December survey was also the first for nearly three years in which more retailers said sales were down than up.
In the two weeks from December 4 to December 18 year-on-year sales were up for 34 per cent of firms, while 37 per cent said they were down. This is the first negative balance since January 1999 and the first negative balance for December since 1992. Retailers expectations for the January sales remain modest.
The three month moving average, which smooths out month-to-month fluctuations, shows sales growing at a slower rate than in November.
Ian McCafferty, CBI chief economic adviser, said: “Retailers will be very concerned by these figures. We will need to wait for the full picture but, without a last-minute surge in spending, this will have been a very disappointing Christmas. We must hope that consumers are simply deferring purchases until the January sales. If the mood of consumers is still low into the New Year, then the outlook for the UK economy is seriously worrying.”
The pattern of previous month, where goods linked to the housing market showed the strongest growth, was less evident in December. Stores selling furniture and carpets reported strong growth, but sales of durable household goods and hardware, china and DIY items were lower than a year ago. Confectionery, tobacco, books and stationary also sold well but clothing and footwear sales fell year-on-year.
