Late March surge may herald UK recovery
Traffic figures indicate UK shoppers returning
April 2 2003
The last week in March saw higher shopper traffic in UK shopping centres than across the month as a whole, according to the figures from both SPSL and FootFall.
With both the CBI monthly survey of retailers and the Retail Traffic Index produced by SPSL showing sharp declines for March as a whole, FootFall said the figures for the week starting March 24 would come as a surprise.
The FootFall Index, which measure the total number of people passing through shopping areas, not simply those going into shops, showed numbers up 8.7 per cent compared to the previous week, although the year-on-year figure was still down 1.3 per cent.
David Smyth, marketing manager at FootFall said: “Last week’s increase has come as a surprise to most people. Although we always expected to see the recent downward trend come to an end sooner or later, the timing and scale of the upswing is very encouraging.
“Even though the year-on-year figure is still slightly down you have to realise that last year we had the Easter weekend included in the figures, which historically sees an increase in shopper numbers.”
With many people getting paid in the last week of the month, as well as many people buying Mother’s Day cards and gifts, a better week than across March as a whole might have been expected. The fact that most of the UK enjoyed a good spell of early spring sunshine also helped, with the CBI survey showing a rise in DIY sales.
Smyth said: “From all the information we have to hand it appears that the level of footfall is very much back to the level we have seen for the last two years. This does bode well as we move towards the traditionally good shopping period of Easter.”
The Retail Traffic Index from SPSL confirmed the final week sales burst, showing shopper numbers up 7.4 per cent week-on-week in the final week of March. For the month as a whole, the Index showed a marginal 0.9 per cent decline on February, which had itself been a poor month. Year-on-year retail traffic fell in March by 6.6 per cent.
Dr Tim Denison, director of knowledge management at SPSL said: “It is clear that consumer confidence has softened in the first quarter of 2003. Retail traffic in Q1 was 2.8 per cent down on 2002, though last year the quarter did include the Easter period. The drop is not disastrous, but nonetheless it is significant and does reflect some lessening of consumer confidence.”
The war in Iraq, rises in National Insurance contributions and council taxes, and growing debt were all factors in declining consumer confidence, said Dr Denison. “They are postponing any sustained shopping sprees just now, though the potential for Spring growth is there. Last week the tempting combination of good weather, mid-season sales and Mothering Sunday saw shopper numbers swell by 7.4 per cent over the previous week.”
SPSL figures show shopper numbers in London and the South East down by 9.3 per cent year-on-year in March, whilst the drop in Northern England was 5 per cent. The congestion charge in Central London des not appear to have been hit retailers any harder than the general downturn, with traffic was down 9 per cent year-on-year in shops in the Congestion Zone.
