Easter fortnight shopper numbers lowest this decade
Figures from retail research group SPSL’s Retail Traffic Index released today show that the Easter holiday fortnight (9th – 22nd April) was the quietest this decade.
Shopper numbers over the fortnight across the UK were down by 7.3% on Easter fortnight last year despite Easter being three weeks later this year.
Dr Tim Denison, Director of Knowledge Management at SPSL said; “These latest figures are troublesome for retailers. A late Easter break usually means more people out shopping as householders begin their DIY and gardening season. This year, although shopper numbers were 4.4% higher than the same calendar fortnight last year, which of course was not Easter fortnight, the uplift was nowhere near as much as we usually see over an Easter period.
“That said, we had expected that numbers would be down on last year, given the downturn in shopping during recent months, but even our forecast of a drop in shopper numbers of 3.9% proved optimistic. The poor Easter comes on the back of another quiet month in March – the RTI registered a 9.5% year-on-year drop in numbers – and a fall of 1.7% against February, itself a disappointing month.
“We’ll be in a better position to assess the status of shopper activity when we view both March and April’s figures combined, to overcome the Easter shift effect. In the meantime what is clear is that shopper numbers are down. Either as part-cause or part-effect, consumers are now, according to recent figures from the Investment Management Association, The British Bankers’ Association and the Building Society Association switching strongly in favour of saving.
“If the consumer’s ‘peace of mind preference’ is switching from ‘spend’ to ‘save’ then we ought not to dismiss the arrival of the ‘A-Day’ out of hand, with its changes to the personal pension scheme system, as another factor discouraging shopping for higher ticket items.
“Retailers will now be looking towards the start of the warmer weather and the first May bank holiday this coming weekend to boost trade.
Weather conditions over recent months have not dealt a kind hand to the sector, but a change for the good now would provide a welcome boost. No doubt, though, there will be more nervous retailers once again questioning what it takes to improve sales in a tougher market than we have become accustomed to at this time of the year.
“If footfall levels don’t pick up soon, there will be warehouses of unsold Spring/Summer ranges and consumers can expect rich pickings to follow. Though retailers are managing to preserve margins from sourcing further afield at lower cost, they are losing out over order and shipment flexibility. If stocks can’t be shifted soon, heavy discounting will follow before we reach mid Summer, but whether this will be sufficient to induce consumers to shop is a moot point.
“Much of the pressure on retailer performance in coming months will rest not on merchandising aspects, but with the buying divisions, the selections they have made and the volumes to which they have committed.
